{"id":7849,"date":"2025-12-01T03:59:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-30T18:59:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/?p=7849"},"modified":"2026-01-11T07:54:09","modified_gmt":"2026-01-10T22:54:09","slug":"future-is-unevenly-distributed-forecasting-ability-of-llms-depends-on-what-were-asking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/?p=7849","title":{"rendered":"Future Is Unevenly Distributed: Forecasting Ability of LLMs Depends on What We&#8217;re Asking\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Future Is Unevenly Distributed: Forecasting Ability of LLMs Depends on What We&#8217;re Asking\u00a0<\/strong>[1.1]<br>\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u3067\u306f,\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u30ab\u30c3\u30c8\u30aa\u30d5\u65e5\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u3066\u767a\u751f\u3057\u305f\u4e8b\u8c61\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u5b9f\u4e16\u754c\u306e\u8cea\u554f\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066,\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u30d5\u30a1\u30df\u30ea\u306e\u7570\u306a\u308b\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u30d5\u30a1\u30df\u30ea\u3067,\u4e88\u6e2c\u6027\u80fd\u304c\u3069\u3046\u5909\u5316\u3059\u308b\u304b\u3092\u691c\u8a0e\u3059\u308b\u3002 \u6211\u3005\u306f,\u6587\u8108,\u8cea\u554f\u30bf\u30a4\u30d7,\u5916\u90e8\u77e5\u8b58\u304c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3084\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306b\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5f71\u97ff\u3059\u308b\u304b,\u4e8b\u5b9f\u7684\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30b9\u30b3\u30f3\u30c6\u30ad\u30b9\u30c8\u306e\u8ffd\u52a0\u304c\u4fe1\u5ff5\u306e\u5f62\u6210\u3084\u5931\u6557\u30e2\u30fc\u30c9\u3092\u3069\u3046\u4fee\u6b63\u3059\u308b\u304b\u3092\u5206\u6790\u3059\u308b\u3002<br><a href=\"http:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2511.18394v1\">\u8ad6\u6587<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fugumt.com\/fugumt\/paper_check\/2511.18394v1\">\u53c2\u8003\u8a33\uff08\u30e1\u30bf\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\uff09<\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0(Sun, 23 Nov 2025 10:41:19 GMT)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>LLM\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u80fd\u529b\u306e\u691c\u8a3c\u3068\u5931\u6557\u4e8b\u4f8b\u306e\u5206\u6790\u3001\u300cForecasting competence in LLMs is highly uneven, reflecting not only data coverage but the cognitive framing embed- ded in prompts. While we may expect adding recent news should improve forecasting accuracy, we find that sometimes it does while at other times it makes it worse because of definition drift, rumour anchoring and recency bias etc.  emergent, and invite design of benchmarks that disentangle knowledge recall from probabilistic inference.\u300d\u306f\u307e\u3041\u305d\u3046\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3068\u601d\u3046\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[712,595],"class_list":["post-7849","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-arxiv","tag-foresight","tag-595"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7849","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7849"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7849\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7850,"href":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7849\/revisions\/7850"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7849"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7849"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7849"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}