{"id":8033,"date":"2026-01-06T06:47:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-05T21:47:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/?p=8033"},"modified":"2026-01-11T07:51:37","modified_gmt":"2026-01-10T22:51:37","slug":"scaling-open-ended-reasoning-to-predict-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/?p=8033","title":{"rendered":"Scaling Open-Ended Reasoning to Predict the Future\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Scaling Open-Ended Reasoning to Predict the Future\u00a0<\/strong>[56.7]<br>\u6211\u3005\u306f\u3001\u30aa\u30fc\u30d7\u30f3\u30a8\u30f3\u30c9\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u8cea\u554f\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u884c\u3046\u305f\u3081\u306b\u8a00\u8a9e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u8a13\u7df4\u3059\u308b\u3002 \u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30cb\u30f3\u30b0\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u30b9\u30b1\u30fc\u30eb\u30a2\u30c3\u30d7\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001\u6bce\u65e5\u306e\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30b9\u3067\u5831\u544a\u3055\u308c\u308b\u30b0\u30ed\u30fc\u30d0\u30eb\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u304b\u3089\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u4e88\u6e2c\u8cea\u554f\u3092\u5408\u6210\u3059\u308b\u3002 \u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30cb\u30f3\u30b0\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u3088\u308b\u30ad\u30e3\u30ea\u30d6\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306e\u6539\u5584\u306f\u3001\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306a\u30d9\u30f3\u30c1\u30de\u30fc\u30af\u3067\u4e00\u822c\u5316\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<br><a href=\"http:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2512.25070v1\">\u8ad6\u6587<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fugumt.com\/fugumt\/paper_check\/2512.25070v1\">\u53c2\u8003\u8a33\uff08\u30e1\u30bf\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\uff09<\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0(Wed, 31 Dec 2025 18:59:51 GMT)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u300cIf trained at scale for forecasting world events, Large Language Models (LLMs) may enjoy structural advantages over humans: they can ingest and synthesize vast, heterogeneous corpora across thousands of topics; and update predictions rapidly as new information arrives. Just like language models now show superhuman reasoning on some exam-style math and coding problems (OpenAI, 2025), in the future, language model forecasters may be able to come up with possibilities that humans miss.\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30e2\u30c1\u30d9\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u96e3\u3057\u3044\u30bf\u30b9\u30af\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001Leakage\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u3082\u61f8\u5ff5\u3055\u308c\u308b\u304c\u3001\u304b\u306a\u308a\u614e\u91cd\u306b\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u6271\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u5370\u8c61\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u30d7\u30ed\u30b8\u30a7\u30af\u30c8\u30b5\u30a4\u30c8\u306f<a href=\"https:\/\/openforecaster.github.io\/\">Scaling Open-Ended Reasoning to Predict the Future<\/a>\u3001\u30ea\u30dd\u30b8\u30c8\u30ea\u306f<a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/OpenForecaster\/scaling-forecasting-training\/tree\/main\">GitHub &#8211; OpenForecaster\/scaling-forecasting-training: Codebase from our first release.<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[712,622],"class_list":["post-8033","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-arxiv","tag-foresight","tag-622"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8033","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8033"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8033\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8034,"href":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8033\/revisions\/8034"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8033"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8033"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/devneko.jp\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8033"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}